Zogby poll: Arab-American voters split evenly between Harris, Trump

Abbas Alwieh, a Michigan uncommitted delegate, participates in a press conference outside the United Center before the Democratic National Convention, Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024, in Chicago. | Matt Rourke/AP

WASHINGTON—Israel’s genocidal policy in Gaza and its war on Lebanon, fueled with weapons from and backed by the U.S., is endangering the chances of Vice President Kamals Harris winning the election less than a month from now.

Polls taken for the Arab American Institute by one of the most respected pollsters, James Zogby, show an even split in Arab-American support for Vice President Harris and the convicted rapist and criminal Muslim-hater, Donald Trump.

The survey shows that 42% of the 500 voters contacted supported Trump while 41% backed Harris. The rest supported third-party hopefuls or were undecided. The implications are serious in swing states that have large numbers of Arab-American voters.

Taking third-party candidates out of the race gives Trump a 46%-42% lead. It also says the Arab-American voters favor continuing GOP control of Congress, 44%-42% The poll has a plus-or-minus 4.5% margin of error.

Zogby’s institute bluntly said that whichever presidential hopeful openly promises positive steps to mandate a ceasefire, open up shipments of humanitarian aid, peace talks, and a curb on U.S. weapons sales to Israel, will get a large majority of Arab-American votes.

That’s especially important in two swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, in that order. Michigan has 300,000 Arab-American residents. Arab-American voters there mobilized for a large “uncommitted” protest vote in the party’s presidential primary earlier this year. Zogby’s survey did not break out the percentages by state.

Harris recognizes the problem. On October 4, she met with Arab-American and Muslim-American leaders in Flint, Michigan. Leaders of Emgage Action, a Muslim advocacy group backing Harris, met with Harris, as did the American Task Force on Lebanon, and Palestinian-American activist Hala Hijazi.

Leaders of the “uncommitted” movement were not invited but issued a statement saying “our pressure is leading to some engagement” on the cease-fire issue. In a statement, Emgage Action said it urged Harris to “do everything in her power,” should she win the White House “to end the war and reset U.S. policy in the region.”

Zogby’s institute laid out the stakes, for both Harris and Trump in a statement on the poll.

“If Harris were either to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or to withhold diplomatic support for and arms shipments to Israel until they implement a ceasefire and withdraw their forces from Gaza, Harris’s vote among Arab-Americans increases to around 60%, capturing one-third of Trump voters while virtually wiping out the votes that would go to the third-party candidates,” the poll reports.

“If Trump were to make the same demands,” he would get 55% of the Arab-American vote. That includes a quarter of Harris’s Arab-American support, with the rest from the third-party candidates.

Congressional Dems split

In an irony, which Zogby did not mention in his statement, congressional Democrats have split on continuing military aid to Israel, and growing legions of them demand a cease-fire, peace talks, and increasing humanitarian aid.

Many progressives, led by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Ind-Vt., demand a cutoff of U.S. military aid to Israel, saying it violates U.S. foreign aid law and benefits U.S. manufacturers of the planes, ammo, and one-ton bombs the Israelis use.

Sanders is the only senator to ever have lived in Israel, decades before extreme right-wing nationalist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took power. Like her boss, Democratic President Joe Biden, Harris has not called for a cutoff of U.S. military aid to Israel.

Nine U.S. unions, led by the Postal Workers, the United Electrical Workers, and the National Writers Union, support that demand, too.

Congressional Republicans, like Trump, vote in lockstep for military aid to Netanyahu’s right-wing nationalist government. Trump is even more gung-ho for Netanyahu, who has virtually endorsed the Republican white supremacist’s return to U.S. power.

The GOP has its own reasons for backing Netanyahu and his extremists: They’re favorites of the party’s white nationalist “Christian” base. Some believe a complete Israeli conquest of the entire area will then let “Christians” mandate mass conversions or death of the Jews, in anticipation of the Second Coming of Christ. With friends like America’s right-wing Christians and their MAGA backers, some note, Israel doesn’t need any enemies.

Harris has talked tough with Netanyahu privately and publicly on Gazans’ suffering, emphasizing the humanitarian catastrophe there and the demands for a cease-fire, opening the way for food, water, electricity, and other aid and for negotiations. She has been silent on a military aid cutoff.

“In our 30 years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,” said Zogby, the institute’s president. “The year-long unfolding genocide in Gaza has impacted every component sub-group within the community—with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant or native born, gender and age groups.

“With the catastrophe now facing Lebanon and a little over one month remaining before the election, Arab-Americans and, as our polls of U.S. voters have shown, those who share their concerns—young and non-white voters—will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Palestine and Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.”

Zogby reported that Harris’s boss, Biden, crashed among Arab Americans with his unstinting military support for the Israeli war on Gaza. Four years ago, Biden beat Trump 59%-35% among Arab-American voters.

But an early May poll this year, before Biden dropped out of the race in favor of Harris, but after the war began, showed Trump with a 32%-18% lead over Biden and the rest undecided, or voting for alternatives. And both the May poll and this poll, from September 9-20, reported the Gaza war—and the U.S. role—is important to four-fifths of Arab-American voters.

On an ominous note for Harris, the latest poll also shows a decline in the percentage of Arab Americans enthusiastic about the race. It’s down to 63%, from four-fifths who reported voting in the presidential contest four years ago. And fewer than half of Arab Americans under the age of 30 are enthusiastic.

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CONTRIBUTOR

Mark Gruenberg

Award-winning journalist Mark Gruenberg is head of the Washington, D.C., bureau of People's World. He is also the editor of the union news service Press Associates Inc. (PAI). Known for his reporting skills, sharp wit, and voluminous knowledge of history, Mark is a compassionate interviewer but tough when going after big corporations and their billionaire owners.