WASHINGTON—For Donald Trump, the “bad news” on the economy in July was that few jobs were created, then and in the prior two months. So he lashed out by firing the messenger, the non-partisan labor economist, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The firing was the latest in a series of authoritarian moves to control all the information the American public receives including what news they get on television and on line, what reports they get about the progress of epidemics and climate disasters, what information is included in school textbooks, what museums can or cannot say about Trump impeachments and many other issues.
And that, along with accelerating inflation, and raising questions about whether the BLS could be trusted in the future i.e., that Trump won’t try to manipulate the numbers, set off jitters among economic forecasters—and the markets—which count on BLS’s neutrality
The firing of the BLS commissioner has increased fears across the board now on the part of data collectors and all government employees that any failure on their part to toe Trump’s line will result in their careers being crushed.
The actual July data showed private firms claimed to create 83,000 new jobs that month, adjusted for seasonal factors. But governments shed 10,000 jobs, bringing the net figure down to 73,000. Unadjusted, the increase was 44,000 jobs, net.
The federal government alone lost 12,500 jobs last month and 84,000 so far this year, as GOP President Trump’s firings began to hit home. But the real crunch will come when the federal workers who took buyouts through September 30 hit the jobless rolls after that, BLS explained. Right now, they’re still “employed” but on furlough.
Another jobs “shortage” came as BLS collected more jobs surveys for May and June. The initial reports for those two months showed firms claimed to create 291,000 jobs. The revised figures totaled 33,000 jobs. Trump blew up, accusing McEntarfer of “a lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence.”
“Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers—only for those numbers to be quietly revised later,” Trump declared. His statement preceded a long list of what he called errors and leaks.
Heidi Shierholz, the Economic Policy Institute president, spelled out the consequences of Trump’s removal of McEntarfer. She also said revisions in monthly job creation numbers, coming from firms, are normal.
Straight from autocratic playbook
“In a move straight out of the autocratic playbook, Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because he didn’t like the jobs numbers,” said Shierholz, who served as chief economist for the Secretary of Labor during the Obama administration, between stints at EPI.
“BLS is one of the most respected statistical agencies in the world, known for its methodological rigor, independence, and transparency. The president’s actions show a complete misunderstanding of how government statistical agencies operate.
“The U.S. looks set to run into the next economic downturn flying blind. The cost of this incompetence will be felt by working people first. And it’s “undemocratic and economically dangerous.
Trump’s “belief the BLS commissioner personally ‘produced’ the jobs numbers is preposterous,” she continued. The data is “the product of careful work by hundreds of expert economists, statisticians, and civil servants following transparent, well-established methodologies.
“If policymakers and the public can’t trust the data—or suspect the data are being manipulated—confidence collapses and reasonable economic decision-making becomes impossible. It’s like trying to drive a car blindfolded,” said Shierholz.
Jason Walsh, executive director of the BlueGreen Alliance, a coalition of unions, led by the Steelworkers, and green groups, pinned the blame for the low numbers directly on Trump.
“The numbers are in, and the U.S. job market is in a Trump slump. President Trump is harming our country. His policies—-attacking clean energy and manufacturing, gutting the federal workforce, and his cruel immigration crackdown—-have thrown the job market and the economy into chaos,” he said.
McEntarfer, Shierholz explained, is “bound by strict norms of nonpartisanship and statistical integrity,” just like her predecessors in the top BLS job. “To fire her over an official data release-—simply because the numbers do not serve a particular political narrative—-is a deeply dangerous attack on the foundations of a functioning democracy.”
It’s also dangerous because businesses use the BLS numbers as a guide to investing and hiring, and the Federal Reserve uses them to set interest rates, driving the cost of borrowing—everything from car loans and home mortgages to the federal deficit—up or down. State and local governments also use them to plan budgets.
BLS reported unemployment edged up by 0.1% in July, to 4.2% and the number of jobless increased by 221,000 to 7.236 million, returning that seasonally adjusted figure to its May level. The jobless rate in July 2024—after Trump had wrapped up the GOP nomination—was also 4.2%, or 7.097 million.
But now there’s another problem in the numbers, Shierholz warned: “The firing of the BLS commissioner follows a week of reporting that almost 20% of price inflation data was unable to be collected for July, stemming from severe resource constraints,” a polite way of saying there is not enough money—or enough people—to collect all the data.
“Between illegal firings, starving data agencies of needed resources, and now political intimidation, the U.S. looks set to run into the next economic downturn flying blind. The cost of this incompetence will be felt by working people first,” Shierholz predicted.
We hope you appreciated this article. At People’s World, we believe news and information should be free and accessible to all, but we need your help. Our journalism is free of corporate influence and paywalls because we are totally reader-supported. Only you, our readers and supporters, make this possible. If you enjoy reading People’s World and the stories we bring you, please support our work by donating or becoming a monthly sustainer today. Thank you!
CONTRIBUTOR
