Warnings sound: Trump ready to stage what amounts to a full-fledged coup

There is a great deal of talk about the administration subverting the midterm elections. Fear of this is widespread, and it cuts across class lines. Labor and its allies are working hard to make sure every vote is counted and that results are respected. But even sections of the ruling class are worried about a coup and the implications it could have.

Robert Rubin, the U.S. Treasury Secretary from 1995 to 1999, penned an op-ed in the New York Times this week warning that Trump’s unfounded talk of fraud in the coming election lays the groundwork for questioning election results.

Capitalists are always worried about their bottom line. Rubin points out that the resulting instability from a Trump “coup” would severely damage the U.S. economy, causing countries around the globe to cease doing business with the United States.

The people’s movements, while concerned about the economic effects of Trump meddling with the elections, also have to worry about the resulting control such meddling would hand over to fascist elements in our government.

In the past months, we have become familiar with many of the sabotage efforts underway. It serves to review some of them before we get to one of the simplest ways in which Trump can pull off a virtual coup—refusal to certify actual vote counts.

As even Rubin points out, events show that it is more than just a possibility but actually likely that we may face this awful possibility.

Why else would the administration have spent months now baselessly alleging that Democrats, progressives, liberals, and alleged socialists and communists are planning major efforts at election fraud?

In reality, of course, an intention to manipulate election results is far more evident in the Trump/MAGA drive to purge millions of voters from the rolls.

There is the Republican bullying of states and election officials to turn over to the federal government lists of voters and the efforts to push states into adopting rules making it more difficult for people to vote.

All three of those things are mentioned by Rubin, and all three have been the object of protests by groups fighting to preserve democracy in the United States.

As recently as Thursday this week, Trump declared that he will not rule out using the Insurrection Act if he does not like the results of the elections. The administration has essentially already carried out practice runs of sending in armed federal agents to force individual states to do what it wants when it comes to immigration, so why not send them in on Election Day, too?

There’s a variety of things such armed troops can do when it comes to interfering in elections, Rubin points out, including seizing voting machines and ballot boxes. For those who say this is the stuff of conspiracy theories and highly unlikely, we have only to remember that Trump tried to do these things already during his first administration. It was only because others in the White House stopped him that he did not actually carry out his full plans. This time, however, he has surrounded himself with sycophants more than ready to carry out his every wish.

It should be clear, then, that the administration is likely to continue trying to manipulate the election results. The strong possibility exists that they could resort to what may be the simplest and perhaps most direct route to pulling off a virtual coup if the election results are not to their liking. That simple direct method is to exploit loopholes in the rules governing certification of elections.

Rep. Joe Morelle, D-N.Y., has been warning about this. In a July interview with legal analyst, former DOJ attorney, and New York Times columnist Jeffrey Toobin, Morrelle said such worries keep him awake at night.

“The president simply can’t get over 2020 and he’s reliving it every day,” Morelle told Toobin. “I feel like it’s his girlfriend in high school that got away. Instead of accepting the fact that he lost the election…he just attacks the system.”

It’s those attacks on the system that are just as worrying as all the redistricting and voter purges. Morelle is concerned that relying on loopholes in the certification procedures has the advantage for Trump of limiting involvement of the courts. If Republicans follow the “rules” as they see them, it is more difficult for the courts to put a stop to their lawlessness.

Manipulating the rules for certifying election victories isn’t necessarily a difficult thing to do. As Toobin points out, it’s been done in past elections, with at least 30 officials in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania having been involved in such cases. Rogue election inspectors, almost always Republicans, have refused to certify certain election results in those states.

Toobin, based on his discussion with Morelle, does a thorough job of laying out a scenario in which manipulation of certification rules could be enable the stealing of the midterm elections.

Under the rules, it is the Clerk of the House who certifies the winners of House seats. Until now, that has involved the clerk simply copying the names of the winners certified by the states onto the rolls.

The thing that worries Morelle is that Trump can allege massive fraud in the elections and that the results cannot be certified. If the current clerk, Kevin McCumber, indicated he intended to certify the winners, it’s completely feasible that Trump would demand McCumber’s termination.

While it is highly unlikely that he would go along with such a scheme, it would be perfectly legal for Rep. Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House, to fire and replace McCumber at any time. Under the scary scenario painted by Morelle and described by Toobin, Johnson could put in place a compliant clerk to certify Republican candidates who did not actually win their elections.

This maneuver can be carried out alongside another scheme—the time-honored tactic of delay. The current House, unlike the Senate, goes out of existence on Jan. 3, 2027, at noon. That is because the entire House is up for election at once, whereas only a third of Senators are on the ballot at any given time, making it a continuous body.

If the new compliant House clerk has not certified winners by noon on Jan. 3, it would fall on the old Republican-run House to elect a speaker. Normally, the new House would do this; if it’s the previous GOP-controlled body, that means Johnson would likely continue on as Speaker, giving him the power to seat the new occupants of House seats as he sees fit.

Already twice before Johnson has waited weeks before certifying Democratic winners. No one should expect him to be on the up and up if he maneuvered to keep himself in the Speaker’s chair when in fact it should be Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York if the Democrats take control of the House.

To try to head off such an outcome, Morelle urges that the certification of winners be gotten from the states as soon as possible. In most states, depending upon the rules, that would happen by early December.

The possibility of what essentially amount to a coup, then, is very real. Under normal circumstances, it would be a fantastical idea, but under Trump, the danger must be taken seriously.

The people’s movements are not just sitting around waiting for the worst to happen. The AFL-CIO, the entire labor movement, civil rights organizations, and many others are mounting the biggest election protection operation in history. Poll watchers, lawyers, and others are already on hand across the country.

Voters are being pulled out in record numbers. If the turnout is huge and of historic proportions, it will be more difficult for the Trump administration to steal this election. Fascism has been defeated before. By stepping up the fight until Election Day, it can be defeated again.

As with all op-eds published by People’s World, the views expressed here are those of the author.

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