When describing Donald Trump, many observers use the words “contradictory” or “unpredictable.” This might be a serious misconception. The activities of the businessman-turned-politician have always been subordinated to a clear goal: to extract profit. At first for himself, and then for the entire U.S. ruling class, whom he is appointed to represent.
Just like it was eight years ago, the image Trump’s campaign spun of him being a “friend of the working class” and “opponent of war” is crumbling quickly. On the international stage, upon coming to office, the Republican administration immediately began a militant defense of Washington’s global hegemony.
China, or more precisely, the ruling Communist Party, has been declared the main threat. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls the latter “the most powerful and dangerous adversary the United States has ever had to deal with.”
In the view of the new head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, the Communist Party of China is the leader of all the forces that reject “the capabilities and convictions of the West.” The Defense Secretary admits, “America is at the forefront… Our job is to ensure that we create a deterrent effect that will preserve American dominance in the world.”
The hatred is based on China’s successes. While U.S. GDP increased by 2.8%last year, the Chinese economy demonstrated 5% growth. Industry grew by almost 6%, and high-tech industries by 9%.
The loss of U.S. leadership is clearly visible in the dynamics of world trade. A quarter of a century ago, Washington was a more important partner for 80% of countries than Beijing. Now, the ratio has changed. Almost three-quarters of countries—145 out of 200—trade more with China than with the U.S.
The trend has also affected China-U.S. trade. The deficit in China’s favor continues to break records. Having sold goods and services to Beijing for $164 billion last year, Washington purchased $525 billion in exchange. Given this, it’s not surprising the White House decided to strike its first blow against China. On Feb. 1, 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports came into force. A month later, they were increased to 20%. And this does not include the tariffs introduced during Trump’s previous term and preserved (and even partly strengthened) under Biden.
Washington has clearly overestimated the potential of economic measures. Previous anti-Chinese restrictions have primarily hit U.S. producers and consumers, and the trade deficit has only grown. This is facilitated by the reduction of the Chinese economy’s dependence on foreign trade. The share of the latter in GDP has fallen over two decades from 60 to 37% in favor of domestic consumption.
Let us add that Beijing did not remain silent, immediately introducing retaliatory measures. It imposed 10-15% duties on U.S. coal, natural gas, vehicles, and agricultural products. Export control measures were tightened for rare earth metals, and investigations were launched against U.S. corporations Google, PVH, and Illumina on suspicion of violating antitrust laws.
The obvious loss in economic competition pushes the U.S. to dirtier methods.
The “China threat” is the reason for the blackmail against Panama and Denmark, which owns Greenland. As in other cases, this is often explained by “Trump’s personal whim.” Meanwhile, Tanbreez, an Australian company that owns rare earth metal deposits in Greenland, was under pressure even under Biden. It was forced to give up lucrative contracts with China and sell assets to the U.S. corporation Critical Metals on the cheap. A similar operation was carried out in Panama. Several years ago, it broke an agreement to supply communications technology with the Chinese Huawei in favor of American businesses.
Trump is only following the logic of imperialism, though perhaps on an accelerated schedule.
Imperialist containment
There is no reason to hope for a softening of the bellicose course in the Asia-Pacific region. Having just returned to the White House, Trump criticized his predecessor for the slowness of arms supplies to Taiwan. According to him, the fulfillment of contracts worth $20 billion is delayed. Rubio took a similar position.
Speculating that Beijing would try to seize the island by the end of the decade, he called for pumping Taiwan with as many weapons as possible. As a result, less than a month after Trump’s inauguration, the parties signed a contract for the supply of three NASAMS air defense systems worth $761 million.
Until recently, Washington’s official recognition of the “one China” principle served as a restraining factor. However, changes to this position should not be ruled out, either. In February, Republican Congressmen Tom Tiffany and Scott Perry introduced a draft resolution in the House of Representatives calling for the resumption of official diplomatic relations with Taipei, a free trade agreement with it, and support for the island’s entry into the U.N. and other international organizations. The document calls the “one China” principle “an outdated policy.”
Taiwanese authorities are keeping their noses in the game. Playing along with Trump and his demagogy about supporting manufacturing within the U.S., they have announced their intention to increase investment. TSMC Corporation promises to speed up the commissioning of semiconductor factories in Arizona, and GlobalWafers plans to launch silicon wafer production in Texas and Missouri. Taiwan’s Ministry of Economy has announced an increase in purchases of liquefied natural gas from the U.S.
Meanwhile, to the north, Washington’s relations with Japan are being strengthened. On Feb. 7, Trump received Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The joint statement out of their meeting is written in a tough anti-Chinese style. Beijing is accused of destabilizing behavior in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. The U.S. and Japanese governments say they intend to counter this with an “extended containment strategy” using all forces, including nuclear ones, as well as expanding their joint presence on the Ryukyu Islands.
The latter’s constituent part, the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu), are the subject of a territorial dispute between China and Japan. Washington has unequivocally supported Japan’s claims. As reiterated in the statement from the meeting, Article 5 of the Treaty on Mutual Cooperation and Security, which provides for military assistance in the event of aggression, applies to the islands. “The United States will fully employ its deterrent forces and will 100% defend its allies,” Trump said.
He praised his interlocutor for his intention to increase military spending to 2% of GDP and expressed support for strengthening the trilateral alliance of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. With regard to the DPRK, the parties reiterated demands for “complete denuclearization,” that is, nuclear disarmament, and supported Taiwan’s “meaningful participation” in international organizations.
Like the island’s authorities, Ishiba flattered Trump with a promise to increase investment in the U.S. economy to a trillion dollars and to buy fuel from the United States. He proclaimed that a “golden age” was coming in relations between the two countries.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the outcome of the Trump-Ishiba summit amounts to “open interference” in the country’s internal affairs and undermines regional stability. It called for the Trump administration and Tokyo to respect China’s territorial integrity. But Washington ignored the call, using the same methods in relations with other satellites.
Parade of vassals
In February, the United States sent two B-1 Lancer strategic bombers to patrol the South China Sea with the Philippine Air Force. The aircraft flew over Scarborough Reef (Huangyan), which Beijing calls part of China.
Simultaneously, the U.S., Philippine, Japanese, and Australian naval forces conducted exercises in the South China Sea. Another exercise, Pacific Steller, took place in the Philippine Sea. U.S. and French carrier groups and the Japanese helicopter carrier Kaga participated.
The transformation of the Philippines into an anti-China outpost has been going on for several years. The Pentagon has gained access to almost a dozen military bases, and last year Typhon missile launchers capable of launching SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles were deployed on the island of Luzon.
The weapons now threaten southern China, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and several other cities. At the end of January, the complexes were relocated from Laoag Airport to the coast of the South China Sea, and training for the Philippine military in their use has begun.
Manila has called on Washington to supply additional medium-range missiles, as well as warships, fighter jets, and other weapons. Hegseth’s phone call with his counterpart Gilberto Teodoro focused on “increasing deterrence and strengthening the Philippine armed forces.” Meanwhile, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., has engaged in outright extortion. He said the Typhon would be sent back to the United States when Beijing stops its “aggressive behavior in the South China Sea.”
If during his previous term Trump, albeit inconsistently and mainly at first, distanced himself from alliances, now the picture is fundamentally different. On Jan. 21, a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) was held in Washington with the participation of the heads of the Foreign Ministries of Japan, Australia, and India, who arrived for the inauguration ceremony.
The parties agreed to strengthen cooperation in the field of maritime, economic, and technological security, and confirmed their “resolute rejection of unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the East China and South China Seas.” Let us clarify that this is a standard formulation directed against the PRC. Preparations have begun for the QUAD summit in India with the participation of the heads of state.
The White House has taken the same position on the AUKUS bloc, which includes the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Its prospects were discussed on Feb. 7 during a visit to Washington by Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles. According to Hegseth, Trump is well acquainted with the AUKUS agreements and approves of them. He also assured that the transfer of nuclear submarines to Canberra will begin on schedule in the early 2030s. Before Marles’ visit, the Australian authorities prudently transferred $500 million to the U.S.—the first tranche of $3 billion that the country must pay for three Virginia-class submarines.
Meanwhile, Secretary Rubio held talks with his British counterpart, David Lammy, where the two sides reaffirmed their partnership “on issues such as the conflict in the Middle East, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and China’s malign influence on regional security.”
Another leader who rushed to pay his respects to Trump was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their talks took place on Feb. 13 in a very warm atmosphere. Even the expulsion of Indian immigrants from the United States that took place the day before the visit could not spoil it. For 40 hours, the people were handcuffed and shackled. The inhumane treatment caused indignation among the opposition in India, but Modi decided not to touch on such “trifles.”
At a meeting with Trump, he announced the start of a “mega-partnership for prosperity.” The leaders set a goal of increasing trade turnover to $500 billion and concluding a new defense agreement. India will buy the latest weapons from the United States, including F-35 fighters. This means an expansion of military contracts, the total volume of which has grown from zero to $20 billion over a decade-and-a-half. Incidentally, Russia’s share of New Delhi’s arms imports fell from 62 in 2017 to 34% in 2023.
India agreed to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods and increase fuel purchases from the U.S. In addition, the parties intend to develop an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. “We agreed… to build one of the greatest trade routes in history. It will go from India to Israel, Italy and on to the United States,” Trump said, adding that this would allow Washington to “remain the leader.”
This once again makes us think about the effectiveness of associations like BRICS and the claims that a multipolar world is “being built before our eyes.” So far, the West has been able to play quite successfully on the contradictions between and within countries in the developing world, finding access to the “hearts” of their ruling classes.
Pravda
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