With the announcement of a possible ceasefire in Gaza dominating headlines Wednesday, almost lost in the news was fresh polling data showing the Democratic Party’s support for Israel’s war may have cost Vice President Kamala Harris the 2024 election.
At minimum, it cost her a lot of votes she would have otherwise been able to rely on, especially in the battleground states.
Research released by the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project and YouGov confirms that President Joe Biden’s backing for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military assault on Gaza—and Harris’ failure to break from her boss on the issue—proved a major stumbling block for Democratic chances last year.
The findings lend credence to the warnings made by the Uncommitted National Movement, Our Revolution, and others last summer that support for genocide via unconditional weapons shipments and providing Israel diplomatic cover was endangering the effort to block Trump.
IMEU’s press release accompanying the poll declared that their data shows “what few in the Democratic Party have been willing to admit: Vice President Harris lost votes because of the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.”
Gaza top issue, beating economy
The poll focused on the voters Democrats “lost” between the two presidential election years, 2020 and 2024.
Had Harris been able to hold onto these voters who had supported Biden, many analysts have argued she might have been able to beat Trump and win the presidency. IMEU Policy Project and YouGov set out to investigate what the key motivations were for this group when they went into their polling places.
Nationally, 29% of voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 but opted for someone other than Harris in 2024 said that “ending Israel’s violence in Gaza” was the top issue affecting their vote.
Disgust over Gaza even beat concerns related to the economy, with inflation, for instance, being seen by many analysts as the key reason Trump was able to win over some Biden voters. The economy came in second in the poll, being the top concern for 24%.
Medicare and Social Security were third, at 12%, nearly tied with immigration and the border at 11%. Healthcare and abortion rounded out the list, with 10% and 9% respectively.
Zeroing in on some of the crucial swing states that gave Trump his Electoral College victory, however, shows that in some cases an even larger number of voters who abandoned the Democratic ticket were motivated to do so because of Gaza.
In Arizona, a whopping 38% of Biden voters did not support Harris because of the administration’s support for Netanyahu’s war. Michigan and Wisconsin, which have significant Arab American populations, both saw 32% of usual Democratic voters cast ballots for other candidates because of Gaza.
Overall, in the six battleground states that flipped from Biden to Trump, 20% of voters who chose not to vote Democrat this time said the Democrats’ refusal to act to end Israel’s war in Gaza was the top reason why. The economy was the most important concern of a third of voters who had supported Biden previously but did not vote for Harris.
But even when it came to the economy, there were strong opinions about the affect that subsidizing Israel’s onslaught was having domestically within the U.S. Among respondents, 73% said the $18 billion taxpayer dollars spent on weapons for Israel over the past year “would be better spent lowering costs and supporting Americans dealing with inflation and struggling to afford basics like housing and healthcare.”
Even a hint of change might have convinced many
Anger over Biden’s military support for Israel ran high in many districts, but a large number of voters said they might have backed his successor on the ticket if they had received any hint she would take a different approach on Gaza.
Some 36% of Biden 2020 swing state voters said they would have been more likely to support Harris if she “pledged to break from President Biden’s policy toward Gaza by promising to withhold additional weapons to Israel.” Ten percent said such a change would have made them less likely to support her, while 54% said it made no difference.
Even for those Biden 2020 voters who did end up casting a ballot for Harris, Gaza still served as a damper on enthusiasm and election mobilization efforts. 35% said a policy switch would have made them “more enthusiastic” about supporting Harris’ campaign.
The question of whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza earned affirmative responses from solid majorities among swing state voters in both categories. 55% of Biden 2020 voters who did not vote for Harris responded yes; among those who did support her, 56% said yes.
Many of the voters in this poll also expressed strong views about U.S. support for Israel’s larger policy of occupation and apartheid in Palestine beyond the current war in Gaza. 58% said they would view the Democratic Party more favorably if it were to “pressure Israel to end military rule over Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.”
Want Democratic Party overhaul
Nationally, 56% of the voters Democrats lost in 2024 said they preferred to support candidates who support withholding weapons to Israel.
Asked about their opinions of particular Democrats who have supported a ceasefire and arms embargo for instance, they gave “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” ratings to some by very high margins. Sen. Bernie Sanders was rated as favorable by 85%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by 71%.
Queried about the 19 Democratic Senators who voted in November to block arms shipments because of Israel’s violations of U.S. and international humanitarian laws, those polled overwhelmingly said they would prefer more such leaders in the Democratic Party.
Large margins said they want super PAC dark money out of Democratic primaries. They prefer voters select Democratic leaders and candidates free of the influence of big money and lobbyist dollars.
68% support a ban on super PACs spending unlimited amounts of money to influence internal Democratic Party nominations, and 60% said they would back candidates who stood up for such a position.
The post-election claims of media pundits and Democratic centrists that the party platform was “too progressive” or “too liberal” were not supported by the evidence in the IMEU/YouGov poll.
Instead, voters described the Democratic Party as “too beholden to wealthy donors and billionaires” (46%), “ignoring the demands of voters who usually support Democratic candidates” (46%), and said its leaders “did too much to support Israel in its invasion of Gaza” (44%).
The results show that Biden 2020 voters did not abandon the Democratic Party in 2024 because it was “woke.” Rather, significant numbers of them left because they felt the party had abandoned its own progressive base.
A warning heard too late
Coming just days before Trump returns to power, the release of data supporting the argument made by peace activists last summer that a change in Gaza policy by the Biden administration and the Democratic campaign might have made a difference in the election outcome will come as bittersweet news for many.
It might momentarily feel good to get information that proves them right, but that feeling certainly fades fast when all it shows is that they were right about a bad outcome and the reasons that led to it. The danger that the incoming administration poses for peace in the Middle East along with its determination to stage a reactionary rollback of progress here at home strip away any “we told you so” feelings of satisfaction.
The possibility of a real ceasefire in Gaza is to be welcomed, but the records of the Netanyahu government and the first Trump administration both suggest a future of peace, reconstruction, and free development for Palestine is anything but guaranteed.
While analysis of the 2024 election results and political struggles in the Democratic orbit over strategy and tactics will continue, the data from the IMEU Policy Project should play a prominent role in those discussions and debates if there is to be a serious chance of beating the far right.
As IMEU said Wednesday, “The Democratic Party needs to come to terms with the real reasons it lost the presidency in November, including because after over a year of unprecedented protests and calls for Biden to stop sending weapons to Israel, party leadership failed to listen to its own voters.”
The pro-peace and progressive forces must be strengthened to the point that they can’t be ignored. We’re all paying the price for that happening in 2024.
As with all news-analysis articles published by People’s World, the views expressed here are those of the author.
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