HAIFA—At dawn on Tuesday, Israel deliberately violated the Gaza ceasefire agreement, unleashing massive bombing raids that have killed many women and children. The airstrikes are the most horrific example so far of Israel’s refusal to abide by the conditions it pledged to two months ago, but they come on top of previous violations, including the blocking of all humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Early reports suggest as many as 400 Palestinians have been killed and 660 injured in the overnight bombings.
With fresh arms supplied by the Trump administration, the Israeli government has apparently decided it no longer needs to follow the terms of the ceasefire. For weeks, Israel has already been failing to abide by the agreement, as it did not complete the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, especially from the Philadelphi corridor, as agreed upon.
In return, Hamas responded to the Israeli violation and showed no willingness to move forward with implementing prisoner release deals in accordance with the new U.S. mediation initiatives, which led to the negotiations stalling.
But there are other issues at play.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement of the resumption of military operations comes amid a coalition crisis that threatens his political future. With his government facing crucial challenges in the Knesset in the coming days, most notably the approval of the 2025 budget, “it appears that the decision to return to fighting was not merely a security move,” according to Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel.
The fresh attacks on Gaza are also an attempt to bolster the cohesion of his fragile coalition, particularly by attracting the Otzma Yehudit party, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has made the continuation of the war a prerequisite for his political support.
With political crisis threatening his continued rule, Netanyahu is exploiting the war in Gaza as a tool to ensure his survival, even at the expense of the lives of Israeli hostages. While he promotes the resumption of fighting as a military necessity, his true motives are being exposed: bringing Ben-Gvir and his party back into the government, passing the budget, and tightening his grip on the ruling coalition.
Harel says that “this is not just a battle against Hamas, but another step in Netanyahu’s strategy to consolidate his rule by fueling perpetual wars, even if the price is more chaos and bloodshed.”
Avi Bar-Eli, an analyst for the Israeli publication The Marker, reported that the operational plan, prepared by the Israeli military, was presented and approved late last week, against the backdrop of the stalemate in negotiations to return the detainees. “Although the scope and duration of the fighting remain unclear, it is difficult to separate the timing of the military plan’s implementation from the coalition crisis facing Netanyahu ahead of his crucial parliamentary agenda over the next 48 hours,” according to Bar-Eli.
He added, “The government is scheduled to bring the economic adjustments bill to a vote on Wednesday, with a series of votes to approve the 2025 budget set to conclude next Monday. However, the governing coalition does not have a stable majority to pass these laws, meaning that if the budget is not approved, the current Knesset’s term will end at the end of the month.”
That would plunge Israel into fresh elections. Netanyahu’s unpopularity means he could be ejected from office and subjected to prosecution for corruption and other crimes. He’s determined to prevent that from happening.
After Ben-Gvir’s party withdrew from the coalition two months ago in protest of the ceasefire agreement, and another right-wing party, Agudat Yisrael, announced that at least two of its members would vote against the budget over the government’s failure to pass the draft exemption law, Netanyahu is now relying on a fragile majority of no more than 61 members in the Knesset.
Netanyahu’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who was asked Monday about this political crisis, did not deny the concerns and called on his coalition partners not to bring down the budget and the government. That provides no guarantees for Netanyahu, though.
In the absence of other options, and to avoid the risk of bringing down the government, Netanyahu was forced to try shoring up unity among the right, with part of that task being to woo Ben-Gvir back into the coalition. Ben-Gvir’s price was to resume the assault on Gaza; Netanyahu has now paid it.
More airstrikes are likely to follow, and Netanyahu’s new Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, is planning for another large-scale ground operation, supposedly aimed at completely eliminating Hamas. During military planning sessions, Zamir emphasized the need for several combat divisions to carry out this operation, necessitating a massive mobilization of reserves, a move that is being taken for the first time amid a deep internal division over the feasibility of returning to war.
What is becoming increasingly clear is that Netanyahu’s ultimate goal is not to achieve a military victory but rather to consolidate his power by pushing Israel toward an authoritarian regime based on fueling perpetual wars on multiple fronts. In his latest statement, the prime minister spoke of “fighting on seven fronts,” clearly reflecting his strategy for remaining in power.
As for the hostages? Their fate is clearly not part of his concern as long as the continuation of the war serves his political survival. And of course, the lives of Palestinians in Gaza never figure into Netanyahu’s calculations.
This article combines reporting from several Al-Ittihad articles and sources.
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