The election prediction business is always full of unknowns and surprises. But two things already mark Tuesday’s midterms: historic early voter turnout and a desperate push by MAGA forces to hold back what they fear could be a tsunami of voter anger that runs them out of office.
As of Monday morning, 54,834,584 mail-in and early in-person votes had been cast nationally. That smashes the previous midterm record of 45.9 million, set in 2022. In states that track party registration, 46% of early voters are registered Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 19% independents.
One of the critical Senate races that could cost Republicans control of that body is in Michigan. There, Democrat Dr. Abdul El-Sayed faces right-wing Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed leads 53% to 42% in the final New York Times/Siena poll.
The political world was rocked Sunday when Rep. Haley Stevens, the Democrat who lost the August primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers, the Trump-backed MAGA Republican.
Stevens said she did so because of El-Sayed’s alleged antisemitism. Trump immediately praised her “bravery,” while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who had endorsed Stevens in the primary, called her action a “despicable betrayal.”
Several House Democrats called for her removal from their caucus, the Michigan Democratic Party announced she’s no longer a member, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the endorsement “horrific.” Stevens’ chief of staff, Justin German, and many other members of her staff quit in protest.
In an interview with CBS News, El-Sayed responded: “I am for policy, not politics. Everyone knows where I stand on the issues. To me, the need to save democracy, curb the high prices of gas and groceries, the need to end the tariffs that have cost Americans 5 or 6 thousand dollars each, and the provision of healthcare as a human right are all more important than individual candidates. These are things I am fighting for. These are things that Mike Rogers will continue to fight against.”
Michael Steele, the former Republican National Committee chairman who is now a political analyst and program host at MS NOW, said the Stevens move does harm to the body politic. “The move in Michigan with the Stevens endorsement of Mike Rogers is an incredibly racist and Islamophobic thing,” Steele said. “It gives a permission structure to people who may now think their racism and Islamophobia is OK.”
The president and other Republicans needed no such permission, as they’ve been launching Islamophobic broadsides against El-Sayed throughout the campaign. Trump renewed that effort while praising Stevens.
He repeated the fabrication that El-Sayed’s election would give the Muslim Brotherhood influence over Senate Democrats.
“We have to get the Senate. We can’t allow the Muslim Brotherhood—don’t forget, when they have one or two or three votes, they basically assume control of the party,” Trump said. “The party has to go along with them. They can blackmail the party and extort the party.”
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas resorted to open racist incitement, also repeating the lie that El-Sayed is “a passionate supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood” and claiming that if he’s elected to the Senate, “there is a very real risk that Americans will die.”
Republican strongholds in peril
The desperation among MAGA Republicans is increasing, as close races and developments related to them suggest many GOP strongholds are in peril.
In Alaska, the Trump Justice Department sued to block certification of the Senate race if Democrat Mary Peltola defeats Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Federal Judge Sharon Gleason has tossed the lawsuit.
Days before the ruling, Trump called for Peltola to be criminally charged and removed from the race. Trump’s GOP claims Peltola was behind the candidacy of a second Dan Sullivan, an unaffiliated retired teacher, in an attempt to siphon votes from the Republican, but Peltola denies any involvement.
Sullivan has said that he will abide by the results of the election. Political observers warn, however, that despite his loss in court, Trump may try to prevent certification if Peltola wins. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has also suggested he may not certify a Peltola victory.
Poll numbers are also causing surprise worries in other usually reliable GOP places. In Kansas, Democrat Rev. Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, leads incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 52% to 43% in a recent Washington Post poll.
In Texas, a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday shows Democrat James Talarico at 50% to Republican Ken Paxton’s 43%.
MS NOW reporters interviewed Texas voters late Sunday. “I am hopeful that change will be coming,” Michelle Dionne told them. Her friend Mary said, “It is time for a different direction. Thirty years of the Republicans haven’t given us what we need, so yes, it is OK to hope for change.”
MAGA vs. free elections
The Trump administration says it is sending about 1,000 election monitors to polling places in all 50 states to guard against supposed fraud. What they will do when they get there is anyone’s guess.
One thing is certain: They have no legal power to issue rulings, and they cannot enter polling places without local officials’ permission. They can, however, cause a lot of trouble by feeding the fear Trump has created that election results cannot be trusted.
When reporters interview voters who backed Trump-endorsed and MAGA candidates, the answers often show that Trump’s attacks on the integrity of U.S. elections are having an effect.
One such voter told MS NOW reporters that “people were stuffing ballot boxes.” Asked where this had happened, the voter could not say. Another voter, who voted in Texas, said “immigrants in California are voting illegally” but could not cite a single case.
Opponents of Trump’s interference in elections hope that on Tuesday many of the lawmakers who push this kind of misinformation will be swept out of office.
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