Poll reflects “seismic shift” in support for Harris from young voters

Volunteer Ana Licona, left, helps Gregory Williams register to vote in Chicago's South Side. | Annie Rice / AP

According to new polling, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is experiencing a “seismic shift” in support among young voters. Youth are a critical part of the anti-MAGA coalition and could play a decisive role in November if they turn out in big numbers for Harris and down-ballot Democratic candidates.

“In just a few weeks, Vice President Harris has drummed up a wave of enthusiasm among young voters. The shift we are seeing toward Harris is seismic, driven largely by young women,” said Anil Cacodcar, Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. “Harris is enjoying a perfect storm of personal appeal, policy support, and positive reach on social media.”

The Harvard/Institute of Politics Fall Youth Poll, considered the gold standard of youth polling, shows Harris with 64 percent to Trump’s 32 percent among likely voters 18-29 years old in a two-person race. By contrast, Joe Biden won 60 percent of young voters in 2020, a 24-point margin over Trump.

The Spring Harvard Poll released in April showed Biden with a thirteen-point lead over Trump in a multi-candidate field among 18-29-year-old voters. Trump’s lead in some battleground states set off alarm bells.

According to the poll, young Democratic-aligned voters have become far more energized to vote than young Republican-aligned voters since July 21, when Harris took over for Biden. Astounding new voter registrations among youth confirm this finding.

Shift not reflected by some polls

Most national and battleground state polling does not yet reflect this shift. For example, the latest CNN poll shows Harris with a one-point lead over Trump and leading by only 12 percent among young voters. The polling does not yet reflect first-time voters, who are registering 20 percent more Democratic than Republican.

“This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch,” said John Della Volpe, IOP Polling Director. “Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities. Gen Z and young millennials’ heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024.”

Not only were voters 18-29 years old critical to Biden’s victory in 2020, but they were also important when abortion rights were on the ballot.

Many pundits question if young voters will turn out given their history of low voter turnout. Data shows that in 2020, 83 percent of new registrants in that election cycle voted.

Young voters turned out in record numbers in 2018, were critical to Biden’s victory in 2020, and prevented the widely predicted “red wave” from occurring in 2022 after the Supreme Court repealed federal abortion protections.

Thirty-one percent of voters under 30 cast a ballot in 2022, the third-highest youth voter turnout in the past 50 years, and they voted Democrat by a margin of 28 percent.

The poll confirms the evident excitement Harris is generating among young voters. Voter registration has exploded among this age group, including record registrations during National Voter Registration Day.

Similarly, in the week following Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris’s taking his place, voter registration dwarfed the same period in 2020. Young voters, young women, particularly young women of color, drove the increase.

Young African-American women aged 18-29 registered at 175 percent over 2020. Registration among African American women increased by 100 percent and 86 percent among African Americans as a whole. Registration among young Latinas increased by 150 percent and 83 percent among young women overall over 2020.

“175 percent is almost tripling of registration rates among this specific group. You just don’t see that sort of thing happen in elections normally,” says TargetSmart senior adviser Tom Bonier. A surge in new registration among a particular group usually reflects voter enthusiasm among that group overall.

Seen across battleground states

These new registration patterns were seen across all the critical presidential battleground states. Registration among youth jumped by 50 percent and among young African American women by 125 percent.

Another voter registration surge followed Harris’s debate performance, followed by Trump and Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris, who urged her followers to register and vote. Over the next two days, voter registration surged 400-500 percent.

The Harris-Walz campaign is aggressively courting and mobilizing young voters. The campaign organized “Back to School” events on 150 campuses in battleground states, followed by a “Fight for Our Freedoms College Tour” focusing on abortion rights, voting rights, climate action, gun safety, and LGBTQ equality. The tour prioritizes state universities, city colleges, historically Black colleges and universities, and Latino-serving institutions and involves Black sororities and fraternities.

The campaign is devoting enormous resources to digital advertising, including a national Snapchat takeover, targeted social media, campus newspapers, college websites, and letters by Harris in campus newspapers.

According to the Harvard poll, a lot of work remains, including countering MAGA inroads among young men. The “gender gap, which stood at 17 points in the Spring poll, has nearly doubled to 30 points. While both men and women are moving toward Harris, the rate of female support eclipses male support.”

Among likely male voters, Harris leads Trump by 53-36 percent, and among likely female voters, Harris leads Trump by an astounding 70% to 23%! Trump and MAGA are deliberately targeting young men with toxic masculinity, with a big presence on the so-called “podcast bros” and “man-o-sphere.”

Young voters are responding to Harris in ways they didn’t with Biden. They think Harris is far more empathetic, honest, competent, and relatable than Trump. She is seen as “stronger” than Trump by a 21 percent margin, a quality Trump banks on.

By wide margins, youth believe Harris is better able to solve problems of climate change, abortion, health care, gun violence, protecting democracy, and strengthening the working class. They overwhelmingly reject Project 2025.

The prime issues for young voters are the economy, inflation, and the ability to own a home, pay for their education, and enjoy economic stability. For the moment, Trump has a one-point lead in handling the economy.

Other top issues include climate change and immigration. But among women under 45 years old, abortion is the top issue, followed by the economy, according to the Times/Sienna poll.

Foreign affairs, particularly the ongoing war and humanitarian crisis in Gaza, while a concern, rank far lower for most youth.

“Young voters know the impact that this election will have on their futures, from the freedom to make our own health care decisions to addressing the climate crisis to being safe from gun violence to our ability to find a home and pay the rent,” said Rep. Maxwell Frost, D-Fla, the first Gen Z member in Congress. “It is clear Vice President Harris is fighting for us, while Donald Trump’s Project 2025 agenda is to drag young people into the past.”

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CONTRIBUTOR

John Bachtell

John Bachtell is president of Long View Publishing Co., the publisher of People's World. He is active in electoral, labor, environmental, and social justice struggles. He grew up in Ohio, where he attended Antioch College in Yellow Springs. He currently lives in Chicago.