Will Navajo leader in Arizona upset Republican hopes for controlling Congress?

TUCSON—Polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump running neck-and-neck in the battleground state of Arizona, but theirs is not the only race to watch.

The pundits who pontificate on cable TV and podcasts are mostly interested in the presidential contest, but they missed one close House race because no one ever predicted it would be close; it was totally off their radar.

In an October surprise, a recent opinion poll showed MAGA Congressman Eli Crane has lost his advantage and is tied with Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez.

Crane – a Trump handpick who lives in suburban Tucson, outside the 2nd Congressional District he represents – beat out an incumbent moderate Democrat in 2022 after the redistricting added Republican-voting Yavapai County to the district. When he got to Washington, Crane turned out to be one of the most extreme right-wing members of the House. He was among the far-right faction of the GOP that ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Jonathan Nez, running on the Democratic ticket, is a former president of the Navajo Nation, where he lives. He has also served in other leadership roles in the Navajo Nation and as a County Supervisor. Nez, who is the first Indigenous person to be nominated for Congress in Arizona by one of the major parties, has become a nationally respected leader. In 2020, he was one of the main speakers at the Democratic National Convention.

Arizona’s 2nd District takes in a huge piece of northwestern Arizona, extending well into the central portions of the state. The mostly rural district includes 14 of Arizona’s Native American reservations, including the Navajo Nation, the largest reservation in the country in area and population.

The district is larger than 10 of the 50 states and includes mining towns, some of Arizona’s smaller cities like Flagstaff, and some of the exurbs of Phoenix. The district’s population is about 20% indigenous, 20% Mexican American, and 55% white.

None of the pundits were paying attention to the 2nd District because Crane had beaten incumbent Tom O’Halleran by 8% in the newly redrawn 2022 district. Also, Trump carried the district by 10% in 2020, in spite of Joe Biden’s narrow victory statewide.

The Nez campaign is focused on the needs of rural communities, where many people still live without access to running water and electricity, not to mention internet access. He strongly supports Arizona’s ballot proposition that will guarantee reproductive rights in the Arizona constitution.

The 2nd District is one to watch on Nov. 5; it could end up determining whether MAGA forces will control Congress or not.